We believe that the polyurethane industry is currently in the bottom operating area. Due to the strong scale expansion capability of the industry, there will be recovery growth in 2012, especially in the future China will become the global polyurethane industry development center, the development of polyurethane economy and the indispensable new life of the people. Materials, China's polyurethane industry has an average annual growth rate of 15%. Benefiting from policy support, it will take the lead in the recovery period, and the future performance growth is better.
The polyurethane industry originated in Germany and has developed rapidly in Europe, America and Japan for more than 50 years. It has become the fastest growing industry in the chemical industry. In the 1970s, the global polyurethane products totaled 1.1 million tons, and in 2000 reached 10 million tons. In 2005, the total output was about 13.7 million tons. From 2000 to 2005, the global average annual growth rate of polyurethanes was about 6.7%. North America, Asia Pacific and Europe account for 95% of the global polyurethane market in 2010. The Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and South American markets are expected to grow rapidly over the next decade.
According to research by ResearchandMarkets, the global polyurethane market demand in 2010 was 13.65 million tons, and it is expected to reach 19.946 million tons in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.7%. In terms of value, it is estimated to be $33.33 billion in 2010 and $55.48 billion in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 6.8%. Due to the overcapacity of domestic key polyurethane raw materials MDI and TDI, the demand for polyurethane downstream products will increase, and the multinational enterprises will shift their business focus and R&D center to Asia and even China. In the future, the domestic polyurethane industry will usher in a golden period.
The world polyurethane market is highly concentrated
The market concentration of the world's polyurethane sub-sectors is extremely high
The technical barriers for polyurethane raw materials, especially isocyanates, are high, so the market share of the world polyurethane industry is mainly occupied by several major chemical giants, and the industry concentration is very high.
MDI has a global CR5 of 83.5%, a TDI of 71.9%, a BDO of 48.6% (CR3), a polyether polyol of 57.6%, and a spandex of 58.2%.
Global capacity and demand for polyurethane raw materials and products expand rapidly
（1）、Polyurethane raw material capacity is expanding rapidly. In terms of MDI and TDI, the global MDI capacity reached 5.84 million tons in 2011 and the TDI capacity was 2.38 million tons. In 2010, the global MDI demand reached 4.55 million tons, the Chinese market accounted for 27%, and the demand in 2011 was about 5 million tons. It is estimated that by 2015, the global MDI market demand is expected to grow by about 40% to 6.4 million tons. In the same period, China's share of the global market will increase to 31%.
At present, there are more than 30 TDI enterprises and more than 40 TDI production facilities in the world, with a total production capacity of 2.38 million tons and a production capacity of 2.13 million tons in 2010. In 2010, the global TDI market demand is about 1.9 million tons, and China accounts for 30% of the total demand. About 570,000 tons. In the next few years, global TDI market demand will grow at a rate of 4%-5%, and the global TDI market demand is expected to reach 2.3 million tons by 2015. By 2015, the annual demand for China's TDI market will reach 828,000 tons, accounting for 36% of the global total.
In terms of polyether polyols, the global polyether polyol production capacity exceeds 9 million tons, while the consumption is between 5 million and 6 million tons, and the production capacity is obviously surplus. The international polyether production capacity is mainly concentrated in the hands of Bayer, BASF, Dow and other major companies, CR5 up to 57.6%.
(2), midstream polyurethane products. According to IAL Consulting, the average annual growth rate of global polyurethane production in 2005-2007 was 7.6%, reaching 15.92 million tons. With the expansion of production capacity and the increase in demand, it is expected to reach 18.7 million tons in 12 years.
China's polyurethane industry has an average annual growth rate of 15%
China's annual growth rate of polyurethane is higher than GDP growth rate
China's polyurethane industry was born in the 1960s, and its initial development was very slow. In 1982, the national polyurethane production was only 7,000 tons. With the rapid development of the national economy after the reform and opening up, the development of the polyurethane industry has also advanced by leaps and bounds. In 2005, China's polyurethane product consumption (including solvent) reached 3 million tons, about 6 million tons in 2010, and the average growth rate in 2005-2010 was about 15%, much higher than GDP growth rate.。
Polyurethane hard foam demand is expected to explode
Polyurethane rigid foam is mainly used in refrigeration, building insulation, automotive and other industries. In recent years, due to the large-scale application in the field of building insulation and cold chain logistics, the demand for polyurethane rigid foam is growing at a faster rate. The average annual consumption growth rate in 2005-2010 is 16%. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the building insulation and energy-saving market, the demand for polyurethane rigid foam is expected to usher in explosive growth. It is expected that polyurethane rigid foam will continue to grow at a rate of more than 15% in the next five years.。
Domestic polyurethane soft foam is mainly used in the field of furniture and car seat cushion. In 2010, the domestic consumption of polyurethane soft foam reached 1.27 million tons, and the average annual consumption growth rate in 2005-2010 was 16%. It is expected that the demand for soft foam in China will increase in the next few years. 10% or so。
China's spandex industry has a high degree of concentration
Polyurethane fiber is the most high-grade synthetic fiber with the best elasticity. It is an indispensable fiber component of elastic clothing and high-grade fabrics. China's spandex industry has a high degree of concentration, with CR5 above 60%. Driven by profits, Chinese companies continue to invest in new capacity, increasing the spandex capacity from 25,000 tons in 2001 to 394,000 tons in 2010, accounting for 63% of global capacity. In contrast, the demand for spandex in China has grown more slowly, from only 35,000 tons in 2001 to 189,000 tons in 2008, resulting in a serious excess of domestic spandex capacity.。
Synthetic leather slurry soles rank first in the world
Polyurethane elastomers are widely used in steel, paper, printing and other industries. There are several 10,000-ton manufacturers and about 200 small and medium-sized manufacturers.。
Polyurethane synthetic leather is widely used in luggage, clothing, shoes and so on. In 2009, China's polyurethane pulp consumption was about 1.32 million tons. China is not only the world's number one producer and consumer of polyurethane synthetic leather, but also the most important exporter of polyurethane synthetic leather products. In 2009, the consumption of polyurethane soles in China was about 334,000 tons, ranking first in the world.。
Polyurethane coatings and adhesives have an average annual growth rate of more than 10%
Polyurethane coatings are widely used in high-grade wood lacquers, architectural coatings, heavy-duty anti-corrosion coatings, advanced automotive lacquers, etc.; polyurethane adhesives are widely used in shoemaking, composite film, construction, automotive and even aerospace special bonding and sealing. There are more than a dozen 10,000-ton manufacturers of polyurethane coatings and adhesives. In 2010, the output of polyurethane coatings was 950,000 tons, and the output of polyurethane adhesives was 320,000 tons.。
2Since 001, China's adhesive production and sales revenue has grown at an average annual rate of more than 10%. According to the China Adhesive Industry Association, the demand for various types of adhesives in China will exceed 7% in the next few years. The average annual growth rate. Benefiting from the rapid development of the adhesive industry, the average annual growth rate of composite polyurethane adhesives in the past decade is 20%, which is one of the fastest growing adhesive products. Among them, plastic flexible packaging is the main application field of composite polyurethane adhesive, accounting for more than 50% of the total production and sales of composite polyurethane adhesive. According to the prediction of China Adhesive Industry Association, the production of composite polyurethane adhesive for plastic flexible packaging will be in 2012. More than 340,000 tons。
China's polyurethane industry has broad prospects for development
China will become the global polyurethane industry development center in the future
Benefiting from China's abundant resources and vast market, the production and sales of polyurethane products in China continue to increase. In 2009, China's consumption of polyurethane products reached 5 million tons, accounting for about 30% of the global market. In the future, China's polyurethane products will increase in proportion to the world. It is expected that China's polyurethane production will account for more than 35% of the world's share in 2012, making it the largest producer of polyurethane products.。
Four factors drive the future development of polyurethane
1、Policy promotion。Domestically promulgated a series of policies and regulations on building energy conservation, energy conservation and emission reduction of construction projects is the key investment direction of the government, and building energy conservation policy has become an important driving force for the polyurethane market.。
2、auto industry。The amount of automotive plastics such as polyurethane materials is an important indicator of the level of modern automotive design and manufacturing technology. At present, the average plastic consumption of cars in developed countries is about 190kg/car, which accounts for 13%-15% of the car's own weight. The plastic consumption of China's car is 80-100kg/car, accounting for 8% of the car's own weight, and the application ratio is obviously low.。
In 2010, China's automobile production and sales reached 18.267 million units and 18.069 million units respectively, ranking first in the world. According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of the automobile industry, the actual production capacity of China's automobiles will reach 53 million by 2015. The future development of China's automobile industry will gradually shift from pursuing production capacity and scale to focusing on quality and level. In 2010, China's automobile industry PU consumption is about 300,000 tons. In the future, with the sharp increase of China's automobile production and the increase of plastic consumption level, it is expected that by 2015, China's automobile industry PU consumption will reach 800,000-900,000 tons.
3、Building energy saving。According to the deployment of energy-saving work in China, by the end of 2010, urban buildings have reached the design standard of 50% energy saving. By 2020, the total energy consumption of buildings in the whole society must be at least 65% energy-saving. At present, the main building energy-saving materials in China are mainly polystyrene. To achieve the 65% energy-saving goal in 2020, comprehensive energy-saving measures are required for the external wall of 43 billion square meters. Among the building insulation materials in developed countries, polyurethane accounts for 75% of the market share, while less than 10% of the building insulation materials in China use polyurethane rigid foam materials. The building energy-saving insulation market will be the largest growth potential of polyurethane hard foam consumption in China in the future. Application area.
4、Refrigerator and other market demand for refrigerators. Polyurethane has an irreplaceable role in the field of refrigerators and freezers. With the development of urbanization, the increase of the popularity rate of refrigerators and the upgrading of products have driven the development of the refrigerator and freezer market, and the development space of polyurethane in the field of refrigerator freezer has increased.。