Polyurethane industry: US market recovery boosts industry boom
Editor：Zhejiang Zhenshen Insulation Technology Corp. Ltd. │ Release Time：2019-03-04
The price of polyurethane raw materials has risen and fallen. The isocyanate supply and demand structure in the polyurethane raw materials is relatively good, and the supply of the Bayer device in Shanghai at the end of February caused the supply shortage. In the past month (2.13-3.16), pure MDI and aggregate MDI increased by 5% and 4% respectively; BDO increased by 16% due to factors such as unstable operation of the device.
The inventory pressure of PO-polyether and adipic acid increased, sales were not smooth, and the decline was high. Downstream polyurethane products such as sole stocks and slurries were directly subject to poor order, and prices were flat and down 2%.
PMI data shows that the economy has not stabilized, and chemical raw materials PMI show that export orders have recovered well. In February, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced a PMI of 51, an increase of only 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Compared with history, the PMI growth rate after the Spring Festival this year has dropped, indicating that the economy has not stabilized. In February, the PMI index of the chemical raw materials and chemical products industry was 50.5, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points lower than the previous month.
In terms of sub-projects, there were export orders (+6%) and existing orders (+9.7%), but the +J Ding single index dropped by a large margin (a 9.7%), indicating that production expanded and export orders increased. It has basically recovered to the same level as last year, while domestic demand has become even more depressed. The polyurethane sub-sector in the chemical industry is expected to benefit from better export orders.
Focus on the export market, especially the US market. The number of new housing starts in the United States is one of the best since 2000. In January 2012, the number of new housing starts increased by 14% year-on-year. Last year was 3%, and the demand for polyurethane building insulation materials is expected to rise. In 2011, China's imports of polymeric MDI accounted for 16% of US sources, and US data supported the price of aggregated MDI. In addition, the consumption of polyurethane flame retardants is also expected to increase simultaneously.
Risk factors: crude oil prices rose sharply, industry gross margins fell; European and domestic demand continued to be sluggish;
The PU exterior wall insulation policy was released less than expected.
Investment strategy: Export orders warming up the polyurethane industry, Jacques Technology and Yantai Wanhua are expected to benefit from the start of new housing starts in the United States. Pay attention to the old-fashioned furniture to pull the polyurethane soft foam, the related companies have Zhangzhou Dahua. It is also recommended to pay attention to three-dimensional Shanxi.